When the reverse is true, it's known as a La Niña. When the water in the equatorial Pacific is warmer than average, an El Niño is typically declared. ENSO is defined simply as a short-term climate fluctuation that is determined by the warming or cooling of the waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. One of the determinants for how the season will shape up is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Will La Niña return, and what does that mean for tropical development? EDT, and provided by NOAA, shows Tropical Storm Elsa in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Florida. This GOES-16 GeoColor satellite image taken Tuesday, July 6, 2021, at 5:50 p.m. "Due to the lull in activity the past couple of weeks, this season has not been quite as active as last year, and that should be the tone of 2021," Kottlowski said. was Elsa, which struck northwestern Florida as a tropical storm on July 7 after turning deadly as it churned through the Caribbean days earlier. The third and most recent named storm to make landfall in the U.S. That storm was followed by Danny, which was a short-lived tropical storm that made landfall over South Carolina on June 28. Previously it was three to five, but so far this season there have already been three storms that have made landfall in the U.S., which is about normal for an entire season.Ĭlaudette moved over Louisiana on June 19, but it didn't become a tropical storm until it moved over land, which is particularly unusual for tropical systems. However, Kottlowski and his team have updated the range of direct impacts on the United States to five to seven. The peak of the season is considered to occur from mid-August to October, but forecasters caution that deadly hurricanes can occur outside that timespan.ĪccuWeather‘s team of tropical weather forecasters, led by Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski, says the season remains on track to produce 16-20 named storms, seven to 10 hurricanes, and three to five major hurricanes. There has yet to be a major hurricane so far in 2021, but that is likely to change when the season peaks in the weeks ahead. Of those, only Elsa, which was the earliest "E" named storm on record in the Atlantic, achieved hurricane status. Last year, 14 hurricanes formed, and seven of those reached the major hurricane threshold - category 3 or higher.Īs of Aug. A normal season is considered to have 14 storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. New research published earlier this year from University of Miami researcher Brian McNoldy found that there is a new normal for named tropical systems in the Atlantic based on a 30-year average from 1991 to 2020.ĪccuWeather's forecast, when compared to that 30-year average, indicates that 2021 is expected to be an above-normal season for tropical activity in the Atlantic. However, with the heart of the current season just around the corner, the Atlantic is showing serious signs of life, and AccuWeather meteorologists expect activity in the Atlantic to ramp up. 10, 2020, the "I" storm, which was Isaias, had come and gone, and the frenzied pace would only continue with the development of the "J" storm, Josephine, on Aug. 3 produced no named storms for the first time since 2009, according to Colorado State University Meteorologist Philip Klotzbach. In fact, the stretch from July 10 through Aug. However, since Elsa departed on July 9, the Atlantic has been in a deep slumber. That was followed by an active June, which resulted in three other named storms. At times, the basin was off the charts in terms of its production of named systems and was even briefly ahead of the record-setting pace of the historic 2020 season.įor the seventh straight year, the Atlantic produced a pre-season storm, when Ana formed as a subtropical system 200 miles northeast of Bermuda on May 22. The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season has been a bit of a roller coaster ride in terms of activity through the first two-plus months of the season.
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